Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.447546 2.585007 2.733354 2.906742 3.105721 3.329347 3.603311
2025-03-16 2.228113 2.408058 2.612740 2.867186 3.181843 3.568606 4.098990
2025-03-23 2.132643 2.342049 2.589343 2.911370 3.334269 3.896347 4.756627
2025-03-30 2.013259 2.231724 2.495537 2.849070 3.331779 4.008928 5.135249
2025-04-06 1.911976 2.133729 2.405886 2.778465 3.302641 4.070616 5.443548
2025-04-13 1.836561 2.061824 2.342331 2.733906 3.300524 4.166740 5.837013
2025-04-20 1.804169 2.041085 2.341730 2.772456 3.420283 4.473248 6.761325
2025-04-27 1.791565 2.043957 2.371021 2.853655 3.613551 4.948105 8.395760
2025-05-04 1.752990 2.010364 2.348267 2.856397 3.681025 5.210282 9.759095
2025-05-11 1.718034 1.979530 2.326941 2.858567 3.746516 5.485265 11.570587
2025-05-18 1.664073 1.920946 2.263846 2.792301 3.685529 5.475918 12.252518
2025-05-25 1.631932 1.890424 2.238577 2.782363 3.722774 5.697034 14.602082
2025-06-01 1.599941 1.860181 2.214009 2.774660 3.768867 5.969964 18.682580
2025-06-08 1.560997 1.819134 2.172221 2.736907 3.754918 6.092270 22.798040
2025-06-15 1.547306 1.812014 2.178719 2.776932 3.895103 6.688488 51.821224
2025-06-22 1.507930 1.767832 2.128907 2.720596 3.835888 6.679927 74.154248
2025-06-29 1.468592 1.722645 2.076095 2.656588 3.755379 6.586723 95.565241
2025-07-06 1.437659 1.688415 2.038391 2.616101 3.720117 6.634382 510.635141
2025-07-13 1.428524 1.684396 2.045281 2.651133 3.847048 7.287769 NaN
2025-07-20 1.429451 1.694461 2.073532 2.724746 4.070552 8.502963 NaN
2025-07-27 1.412818 1.678869 2.061931 2.727228 4.133325 9.114724 NaN
2025-08-03 1.396897 1.663810 2.050513 2.729193 4.195382 9.803021 NaN
2025-08-10 1.367277 1.628276 2.006251 2.669146 4.099089 9.538573 NaN